The Katowice Climate Change Conference (COP 24) has ended Saturday night, one and half day later, after two weeks of discordant and emotional negotiations. The main objective of the meeting was to develop a range of measures that will make the Paris “rulebook” operational in 2020, and to strengthen the commitments to reduce CO2 emissions globally, especially following the IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C.
In the light of non suitable political circumstances of the eve, considering the well-known opposition of President Trump to the Paris Agreement, that was recently joined by the new Australian premier – leading of a change in government that has clearly disavowed the climate policies signed by the previous government – and the newly elected President of Brazil Bolsonaro.
Additionally, it has to be underlined that the COP was hosted by Poland (for the third time in eleven years, one in a million) that is a symbol of coal dependency within the EU.
Moreover, it should be highlighted that it was not only the international political framework to make the air inside the Spodek sport arena thick. The air was literally fug throughout Katowice due to the massive burning coal, despite the measures adopted by the local administration to reduce traffic congestion by closing many schools and companies. In fact, the CO2 emissions recording very high values of particulates and causing cough in many people; in addition, the emissions poisoned the air with a heavy smell, this led us to travel back in time at the Industrial Revolution in England, that represents the completely opposite view of the world that the COP would like to leave behind.
The USA has decided to immediately draw the swords against the negotiation together with Russia and Saudi Arabia, and to formally greet the IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C within the negotiation documents. The request of using more neutral and soft terms might seem a formalism for those who are watching from the outside this increasingly complicated and intricate negotiating assessment process, but it was a clearly declaration of war against the other delegations.
The COP 24 has thus experienced, for two weeks, the clear will to undermine the multilateral assessment process. It was no a coincidence that in one of the COP's closing speeches, the head of the Chinese delegation has underlined - sending an unspoken message to the USA - as the multilateral assessment process has been reinforced by Katowice, leaving no room for other hypothetical alternative solutions. In other words, as stated by the President of WWF International Pulgar Vidal, the Paris Agreement has proved to be resilient.
In practical terms, the COP has developed a great part of the technical rules to make the Paris Agreement operational, including those regarding the transparency concept under which China has given its important support during the end of the negotiation process. Excepted the so called “market-mechanisms” (Article 6), something similar to the old Council of Minister, which will require further discussion during the upcoming meetings.
Mission (almost) accomplished regarding the Paris “rulebook”. But it is too soon to cry “victory” because, as Climate Justice Now pointed out, we should take note of the growing gap between those who take part in the negotiation process - often called to defend national interests first rather than solving the problem at global scale- and the real world that observes all this, with a certain detachment, from the outside.
That’s the reason why the “rulebook” has been celebrated enthusiastically at the end of the COP 24, and, although any explicitly declaration, we have saving the multilateral assessment process, while NGOs and civil society are complaining about the incapacity to have effectively changed the direction of the global warming.
The current Paris commitments will increase the temperature of over 3 ° C by the end of the century. Scientists claim that we have 12 years left to reverse greenhouse gas emission trends, to halve the global emissions by 2030. However, the 2017 and 2018 - after 3 years of stasis - have recorded an increasing trend instead of a reduction. A similar warning also is reported by Secretary-General of the United Nation, Antonio Guterres, who claimed: “From now on, my 5 priorities will be: ambition, ambition, ambition, ambition and ambition. Ambition in mitigation. Ambition in adaptation. Ambition in finance. Ambition in technical cooperation and capacity building. Ambition in technological innovation.”
Also for this reason he has called a meeting in New York for next September, where the commitments of the countries will collect in order to strengthen the scope of the Paris Agreement. However, It is difficult to imagine that it will really bring on the table such commitments to reverse GHG emission trends globally, unless the society will ask for a real change of direction from its governments.
